CMP Guangzhi amount of confidence and the Great Depression days

 A, Bowen Headline: Darksteel Order: the amount of confidence and the Great Depression days
excerpt: Why the United States the Great Depression happen?
One answer is that the Government's financial resources were sufficient majestic,
that have Guards and the confidence.
Hoover has done a Bush and now Barack Obama has done,
whether financial or monetary means, almost exhausted.
and truly let the United States out of the Great Depression , is the dramatic increase in aggregate demand,
the allies of World War II that became the largest purchaser,
Although the U.S. export of capital, but to win pay.
Why would the Great Depression in Japan?
One answer is Government not only the financial strength and national confidence sky.
think the problem with the financial means to solve the monetary means.
In short, all attached great importance to the issue on the surface,
continued prescription,
strategy is essentially underestimate the crisis,
that the power of the government, can reverse the result.
Iron Lady Safu people have sighed,
against the government and the market can not.
Reagan is ridicule mm
government can not solve problem, because the government is the problem.
people who hear it now thought it was joke,
fact, this is the pain of a generation of experience in return.
on the economic cycle,
latest theory is the theory of economic cycles,
that productivity decided to get rid of the economic cycle time and opportunity.
it takes time and efficient allocation of resources, rather than continue to waste investment and consumption.
U.S. Great Depression is the collapse of the type, generation life difficult.
excess capacity is based on the cost of a direct shock.
armed Japan is a decent-style Great Depression, because there is a transfer capacity of Southeast Asia,
ease overcapacity. < br> But the world are now doing the same thing,
that the crisis can be used against the government hands,
too much pressure because of public opinion.
this rescue are the costs and risks of trial and error, Three drum and dried.
But when a strike is not the U.S. government, the result was naturally a domino collapse.
When confidence in the rescue after the collapse,
said as gold, is retaliatory strike.
Now, the world over the past 60 years, pay for consumption and investment,
this is not the intermission.
waves of crisis,
occasional break is to allow a production time and leek soil,
but only so far.
Comments: confidence is based on money. If the investigation on the Chinese people the feeling of happiness is nothing more than a second: Could gold slam happy family home in glory; loss of a family without a lot of small home, lack of gold is also a small silver boss. happy family because of money and full of confidence, loss of family money and not because of the lack of confidence, showing that confidence is based on money, more money are confident enough to play denounced the party Qiu, who earn less inferiority to the sink in position to see people ashamed. So, everyone can join together to life, fame and fortune to Wang Yi, in order to pursue selfish at the expense of the world common people. has no respect for the old Cheng temporary ; real estate information, resulting in a retail thanks to all the crying in the corner, led to condemning, as the saying goes: can you eat rice, if not Luanjiang. The reason is profit-trapped, but nothing more, but got into the old people's money - mouth bit long, the result is that retail investors as they listened to the words of the old - a lot of money, losses, gains and losses between the demonstration of the power of money, the future must be as old purse is still full of confidence, and good forgot tight clothing retail, who can only wait for another food into the old shrink the flicker to release. the majority of retail investors are lured into good bet dog eat dog, over and over that he did not listen to good advice, in order to outperform money into chaos, and The fallacy to confuse the people who can match up to retail investors in the set, lost money, it is human nature, in fact, no wonder people, because the money has already led to lack self-confidence of retail investors did not the assertive, and consequently can only be missing - - wicked, lack of faith, lack of heart ..., is not short of money, not lack self-confidence as they awarded exclusively to a main dealer.
personal point of view: A shares rebound independent of the tide of world trends, the ebb and flow between as shown by a rebound in more money, flood, and Zhangshengyipian, confident cross-flow, so that all the participants forget the economic crisis of the mass, the enterprise is a dangerous deficit, rising unemployment made the reality of the Depression, and the formation of China's unique confidence in the sub-prime, and this confidence is based on no actual support, after the formation of the bubble of confidence, resulting in a bubble A shares dominate. the United States China third wave of the inevitable fall in Japan, and the last will be the last hope of the world to exterminate the fourth wave - the fallen in emerging economies. China would like to rely on faith can avoid the crisis point of simply not the reality, the Government must not Cheng Siwei, or else it will be China's stock market 忽悠 scattered, so that would have , only the begging of the power, the power of a family with no breadwinner.
II, CMP Kwong Chi.
1. 【German numerous Australian mining group Rio Tinto Ltd. and China Aluminum Corporation of China Aluminum Group, the contract signed between the ink not thousands, of China Minmetals Group has taken another action. 2.6 billion Chinese people going funded Australian dollars (1.3 billion euro) acquisition of the world's second largest zinc producer 02 mining companies.
significant acts of the Chinese people. China is a planned stake of local raw materials through manufacturing enterprises around the world direct access to raw materials. now this action has a special charm : Because raw materials since the sudden boom since the end of not only raw material prices, the business of multinational corporations have also been damaged. now there seems to lower prices of raw materials acquisition or production enterprises opportunity to become shareholders.
German Central Cooperative Bank, a senior materials analysis Fogel division that shares in the current level of raw material production enterprise makes sense, which in the next 3 to 6 months in particular, such as China for the long-term strategic investors. But the country not only through equity participation to ensure their own in the world over access to important resources. It is also in part the acquisition of foreign mining companies.
Since the U.S. investment bank Blackstone Group or the British bank Barclays to buy billions of shares has shrunk dramatically, the Chinese government despite fears in a foreign country financial institutions continue to invest. but not the same situation in the field of raw materials. In the field of raw materials, Beijing is trying to expand their sources of raw materials, such as increasing domestic gas production or expansion of China's refining capacity. At the same time, large state-owned enterprises in foreign raw material market look for opportunities to ensure supplies.
China Investment Co., Ltd. Board of Supervisors, said Jin Liqun, open a few weeks ago, the global crisis in foreign acquisitions of Chinese companies provided an excellent opportunity. just as geographical proximity, raw material resources Australia to become rich people the focus of attention in China. Thus, a strong Australian operations of this growing concern.
Comments: China began to move and start using the economic crisis, people have a crisis, we the opportunity to the. individuals that use the reserves to purchase addition to mineral resources, the more powerful use of reserves should be our military as a guarantee, otherwise you'll get through the second level Anfu. because someone is not you call the shots at home, and finally only slip not a loss to meters.
2. United States,
First, expand the domestic market, strive for the best change: mechanical and electrical, steel, textile and other manufacturing recovery plan was hard to the emergence of new structures to government subsidies in the form of home appliances to promote a number of practical effects of actions are also facing problems, may need to continue to expand the domestic market only a decade out of the export mm dependence can be more comfortably deal with China International Economic change in the situation;
Second, for vertical and horizontal, such as the release of the is difficult to separate economic ties with each other, but because of self-interest in international economic relations the principle of the primacy and producing more and more trade friction, so that the structure of the global economy changes in some of the inevitable. For the United States, Japan, India, the European Union nations, China may seek alliance with the policy, divide and respond to it, especially in emerging market countries to use China's influence to increase their bargaining power, while the use of international rules, such as the WTO norms to protect has been country's interests;
Third, promote industrial upgrading, the range of products for the world manufactured products is still a low-technology, and such products are not Since China will also, within a period of not less than the manufacturing sector as an economic engine, therefore, to seek the world's industrial upgrading and product pricing will determine China's economic future.
In fact, today the world to China as a target, not because of its economic strength has reached the super-position but with its growth trends and future expectations in terms of: on the one hand want to purchase from China to the West, on the one hand want to reject China's merchandise trade frictions mm amplified by the phenomenon of the economic crisis is expected to continue for several years.
collision after the dissolution of this iceberg melting period, the ship of the Chinese economy to a series of self-correcting, in the Like thinking, then is the international political ethics. In other words, magnanimously declared, to reciprocate, , self-destruction known to the world.
3. Morgan Stanley: If the statistical approach by the United States has been zero or negative economic growth
excerpt: Roach did not elaborate on the United States in the statistical coverage of specific differences. root well documented information, the U.S. gross domestic product specific calculation (GDP) is significantly different from the production method used in China, which is characterized by: the speed of output growth in the scale of the decision.
Roach believes that China must change the current over-reliance as soon as possible export model, China needs diversified pattern of economic growth, China needs to rebalance its economy.
but he does not seem to believe that China will increase demand for domestic consumption, because unless the Chinese social welfare issues to resolve first. He believed that 4 trillion yuan of China stimulus package, if you simply focus on infrastructure, then, does not solve the problem.
this, with three short sentences Roach gives his own prescription - double the increase of social security funds, immediately ! start the reform of private pension funds, immediately! establishment of a nationwide social security network, immediately!

do not buy anything recently on exchange rate issues of concern, Roach pointed out that the Chinese government may not pass the RMB depreciation of the way to stimulate exports, on the contrary, the approach taken by China may be coincident with the U.S. and other major trading currencies intentions.
But if China continues to maintain export-dependent mode, they must manage their own currency. For example, consider whether to insist on a basket of currencies against the U.S. model? Roach said.
As for whether China will continue buying U.S. debt problem. Roach, depending on China's economic growth model.
Asked the recent investment proposal, Roach said, do not buy anything.
In his view, the global economic situation is not optimistic, like Japan, the United States has entered a period of many years of slowdown, the recovery will be very slow.
Interestingly, if you must make a choice, Roach may invest in renewable energy, because as the Asian countries including China, began to pay attention to scientific development, sustainable development, is expected to have new energy, renewable energy has great demand.
the Chinese market, such as nuclear or other new energy sources, I think it is great opportunity. Roach said.
a hard landing in the fourth quarter of last year, Morgan Stanley, January 18
research report released today, the Chinese economy by the fourth quarter of last year, large enterprises and trade financing to the inventory of the effects of a serious collapse of a hard landing, the industrial added value and the consumer price index (CPI) may be last year's second quarter year on year increase of 16% and 8% to 6%, respectively, acute and 2%. it will be on China's economic growth forecasts this year down to 5.5%.
report said China's economic hard landing for the fourth quarter of 2008, for the confidence of private investors and domestic shocks may be renewed. Although the first quarter of this year, nearly the end of China to the inventory, trade finance has become increasingly normalized, is conducive to short-term recovery in economic activity, but China will depend on sustained economic recovery Measures to revive the economy in the years before the campaign, and the G3 (the three major economies in Europe and America) in the fourth quarter, the economic recovery may be slow.
Comments: Roach, three short sentences with his own prescription given - - triple the social security funds, immediately! start the reform of private pension funds, immediately! establishment of a nationwide social security network, immediately! Do not buy anything recently!!! Lo like a foreigner should, within the old should be scolded into it. < br> 4. Mr Song: the second wave of the global financial crisis, several major disease
excerpts: 1. bond market, the impact of U.S. commercial banking system default credit default crisis in the first half
, mainly in the credit based on the real estate market breach of contract, and the establishment of credit in the real estate on the financial derivatives market. the credit default crisis in the second half, it will be more large-scale breach of the bond market, reflected in corporate bonds, financial institution bonds, local government bonds, and even the national debt, especially the corporate bond market, where the junk bond market.
real economy recession, is the first hit by the U.S. corporate bond market. U.S. corporate debt and derivatives market size was 22.5 trillion U.S. dollars, the corporate debt and mortgage lending, has been derived many times. and corporate bonds in junk bonds, which is equivalent to the subordinated corporate bonds.
the current U.S. corporate junk bonds, the overall size is 3 trillion dollars, we expect the next six months or so , junk bond default rate rose sharply from 4.5% to break 20% a year ago, we believe that the default rate will rise to 10% level, the current estimate of our prediction doubled a year ago, the original The estimate is conservative.
cycle from the perspective of history, when the U.S. real economy into recession, junk bond default rates have substantially increased in 1991 and 2001 recession, junk bonds are reflected in a significant increase in the default rate . junk bond default crisis and its impact on financial markets, the impact of U.S. commercial banking system, many people now seem to be ignored.
junk bond default crisis is the main target of Citibank, United States Bank of America as represented by the commercial banking system, in addition to the hedge fund industry and insurance companies sectors.
On Friday, Citigroup shares fell $ 1.95, Bank of America fell more than 3 dollars. In system will lead to huge debt double the size of the overall U.S. national debt to 20 trillion dollars, which will lead to greater market for U.S. Treasury bonds system of distrust, the U.S. debt financing costs will be substantially higher. and this will be the third phase of the crisis harbinger of the interest rate market crisis.
other classes in addition to corporate bonds, local government bond defaults and the U.S. is also worth attention. I live in the United States primary schools in the Washington area school buses have been closed, to the parents who take children. my house next to the Inside the church pastor has been laid off. Washington area with the economic cycle should be less relevant areas, even this place has come to the minister laid off. The United States government may be in California the first U.S. government massive breach of local government areas.
2. dangerous European
the focal point of European financial markets, there are three aspects which are worth our attention.
One of the problems in Europe with total assets of the banking system will be very large.
2 月 11 , the British amount of up to 16.3 trillion pounds (about 25 trillion). : system faces the problem of large assets.
second is too dependent on foreign currency loans face the collapse of the Eastern European market risks.
principle of Eastern Europe collapsed, the scale of the Thai baht devaluation in 1997 from the Asian financial crisis began quite. the market now that Eastern Europe is Europe's second-class area, every investor trying to escape. What kind of currency in Eastern Europe can not not be affected. from Poland to Russia, the government bond insurance costs to rise further, while the national currency exchange rate in the fall.
example, February 17, Hungary fell to a record low against the euro Flint .2 18, Polish Zloty against the euro also fell to recent lows, has been down since August one-third of .2 to 19, Austria 10-year bonds widened to 127 basis points in CDS, 117 basis points on Monday.
core of the problem in Eastern Europe, is too dependent on foreign currency loans (such loans are now facing a growing number of defaults), the global economic downturn under the Western neighbors sharp drop in demand for their exports results.
The third is likely to face the Swiss currency crisis.
As Eastern European countries into recession, monetary and accelerate the decline in asset prices, leading to the Swiss banks in a large number of loans issued by Eastern European countries face the risk of default. Bank for International Settlements reports that a total of 2000 billion U.S. dollars of Eastern European countries a large part of the external debt is borrowed in Swiss francs, on a global scale Swiss francs in circulation up to 675 billion U.S. dollars of debt.
the past decade, the Swiss bankers lending to Eastern Europe during the underestimation of the risk, making the Swiss franc interest rates much lower than the Eastern European countries, local currency lending rates, leading to CHF the size of loans to the rapid expansion in Eastern Europe. In Poland, Hungary and Croatia, the Swiss franc as the most important foreign currency, known as the Eastern Europe > 3. huge issuance of U.S. dollar base currency of the global price system
Sharp?
2008 年 11 months, the Fed has created a frightening history of money circulation.
1913 ~ 2008, the Federal Reserve 95 years with the amount of base money will be 7,500 billion U.S. dollars, while the nickname create a record of human history, the fastest printing, within two months, the base currency broke through the double, now close to 1.9 trillion U.S. dollars. the Fed balance sheet, total assets have more than 2.5 trillion U.S. dollars.
many people only see the channels of the U.S. government to rescue the financial and tax scale, did not see the Fed through the direct purchase of bonds in various ways contributed to the alarming volume of currency issued. And a lot of people think the dollar soaring against the base currency of the future economic no effect on the financial markets. But we believe that this unprecedented monetary issuance of U.S. dollar, will in the future world economy serious impact on the world price system would have a serious impact.
2008 led to years to leverage The sharp fall in global commodity prices beyond many people's expectations, and now many people will be expected to show the world the long-term deflation. But in 2009, and in the future, a possible risk is the sharp reversal of the price system, a Field hyperinflation may be that in the near front. oil prices are likely to face another in a sudden and violent impact.
Comments: What is the drink ocean of ink, what the foreigners had a upside down mortgage, is worth studying. < br> 5. Tian Zhongguo: The three basic points of China's economy and the fundamental driving force of a large deletion
excerpt: There are four basic points of China's economy, one investment-led economic growth, and second, export-led economic growth, and the third is possession rate caused by a sudden expansion of the economic madness Chung block. The fundamental driving force of economic development, domestic demand, the first three points of the squeeze, continue to shrink and lose the fundamental driving force of economic development. was irrelevant to the analysis of many economic phenomena However, this result led to the most fundamental reason, in fact, only one: capital free mechanism.
now, I think that should be held accountable advocate of building capital duty free mechanism. If the building did not hold the proponents of free capital mechanism responsibility, all the rescue measures, but the mechanism is a replica of free capital, the result will be deeper in the economic crisis. Some might argue that China's bailout beginning to bear fruit, but the results, only a demonstration of a deepening economic crisis. Why do you say ? In fact reason is very simple, run to a national desperate stroke, showed the economy there will be a rebound, but this pick up just as a supernatural power, is the signal the arrival of a greater crisis.
because the mechanism of free capital growth-promoting economic crisis. run to national desperate result of a stroke, is to accelerate the expansion of market share due to a sudden crazy economic Chung blocking it. Therefore, I personally think that if our free capital mechanisms have to do is not, you have to increase the regulatory capital mechanism for the intensity, rather than unlimited expansion of capital freedom, the freedom of capital, limited range of countries can not be havoc. If we blindly expanding the rights of free capital, the end result will only violent revolution by the violence against or limiting, free capital rights.
recently reported that the Ministry of Finance issued a salary limit orders. It is clear that the initiative will lose momentum in the economy of the mechanism, which is a serious spending power is too weak, they also severely cut a knife. Such initiatives, if not the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Finance, but the private owners, from the point of view to keep corporate profits, is clearly correct, but the problem is that the Ministry of Finance is not private owners, but the government agencies. government agencies not a simple question from a profit perspective, but rather from the social stability, political stability and economic development of the comprehensive perspective of the problem.
can be seen, the Ministry of Finance of the Lord of the lords, that is, when a private owners of the material, Government officials do not have the basic quality. so that they will upset the lords of the Treasury, but the fact that, because the companies make money is and the state does not rule the same way, though they are a a rule of the Road, the road business enterprises. If a country's Ministry of Finance to transform itself into the private owners, I see great danger in this country to special danger.
So, if the rescue, then, our best economic mechanism to solve the problem.
solve the problem from the economic mechanisms, such as Mr. Gao Shangquan will say, this is also a way back to the old idea of the past, but I have to say that the gentlemen of good first-not pregnant opinion, in fact, is a very bogus. because I said to solve the problem from the economic mechanism, is to build a relatively harmonious dynamic equilibrium model of economic development, that is true of the socialist market economic mechanism, not by Mr. Gao mechanism advocated free capital, that The only way to harmony and balance.
Comments: Zhong Zhong people are able to do, loyalty and allegiance to the country things are only for Tian Zhongguo applauded!
6. money string of: stabilize the stock market, you can let the Chinese out of the financial crisis
excerpt: China Securities Regulatory Commission, said head; role in financing China's stock market has failed. that is, such a result of the share reform to friends. misappropriating want from the stock market. No way you, how can I use for good Chinese traditional finance it. with Bank loans to support economic development of it.
But rival banks and the stock market is the stock market rise, banks will be dragged into the stock market investments, on the contrary, the stock market downturn, the funds will be withdrawn from the stock market back to the bank deposit. This is the iron law.
money string of loans handled several cases not yet expired. Several stocks are a bad thing. a breeding farm owner. finally become the scale. millionaire, your friends get into the stock market. month bull market, and change become a million shares value. quit Industries friends. moved into the city to live stock. every day is too expensive pork scolded friends. ho ho, a stock market crash. loss to the cleaners. he is a pauper. honestly back to the farm pig, and falling price of pork every day, cursing.
conclusion. The Chinese Government decided to do a good job of domestic demand is not from 2008. central collective research results out to the countryside to support rural economic development to promote economic growth there is a scientific basis, the concept of string of the money is. the basis of stable national economy, friends. stabilize prices down, old money to buy hundreds of hands on more stuff, that is out of the economic crisis, friends, GDP may not be so good-looking as the export-based economy , but it is the biggest benefit to the people and benefits. is not that our party and people-oriented government said the goal pursued by government for the people up. reform and the results are not the people. fart chicken to do so much.
money string of only one sentence, the United States can not live, is doomed to war, China must be prepared to fight. fight the first battle that must battle, fight it to dominate the world, played a focus of world attention, gangsters appalled to Greater China. Total take China as an any punches either trample, head of China Agou Amao also run shit pee. This day is the Chinese people had it, you do have a cavity blood.
Comments: A farm owners. finally become the scale. assets over one million, let friends get into the stock market. month bull market, became a million shares value. quit Industries friends. moved into the city to live stock. every day is too expensive criticized pork friends. ho ho, a stock market crash. loss taken to the cleaners. he is a pauper. honestly back to pig farms, and falling price of pork every day, cursing. haha!!!
7. Darksteel Order: unequal distribution of wealth is possible only over-consumption. < br> Excerpt: unequal distribution of wealth is possible only over-consumption.
lead to over-consumption and investment boom.
China in 1970, only insufficient consumption.
total consumption expenditure and investment spending is basically the same ,
only have time to have.
differentiation of the majority of wealth comes from three
money illusion: excessive printing of wealth greatly increased.
market illusion: the appreciation of assets surge to stimulate consumption.
Government illusion: government intervention led to significant increase in expenditure.
similar illusions are built based on the bubble,
is living beyond the end, over-advance the next generation of human resources.
government will eventually go back,
that balance the budget, which is the source of the outbreak of the crisis once again.
Comments: We now have the fourth point: the confidence of illusion: the government began Cheng of the.
8. Darksteel Order: Do not mistake this generation , so that 30 years can not return to the clear Lake.
excerpt: There is no cash point line support, or do not support the profitable growth of the stock market,
only one function, the redistribution of wealth, or money laundering.
result is that the wealth disparity.
no technical progress, economic growth is on the resources of any overdraft,
is the next generation or even several generations of resources and the environment, a mention now.
but keep Fangcun De, stay with the children of farming .
Do not mistake this generation,
Lake for 30 years so can not return to clear.
Comments: Personal need is the courage to admit the government admit is needed is the awakening of the people, are very difficult. < br> 9. Darksteel Order: short squeeze is a joke
excerpt: In China, there is no short-mechanism,
that buying shares is not his own.
fact, plainly, there is no real sense bears.
Shenzhen and Shanghai stock market short, in fact, but is now holding bonds or held.
this nothing.
squeeze is a joke, just a voice for those traders.
Otherwise, every day, 1.2 billion of non-investors are the stock market squeeze.
ask them is not the pain of needle punching every day?
investors in China is a sparsifolia,
almost no water, but with unlimited liability,
future generations commitment to greening exploits.
Thank you, Thank you for the 1.2 billion people.
Reviews : environment is deteriorating, the stock market in the green, abandoned human nature, human nature will naturally be discarded.
10. Darksteel Order: In the great crisis, there are two strategies
excerpt: In the great crisis before us
two strategies to overcome a depression, one is through the Depression.
The former is often the power of the whole country and make future generations of wealth.
latter only contemporary suffering of the budget in a generation between balance.
crisis in the end because no one knows how strong,
advance the next generation if excessive resources,
may prolong the crisis,
as the United States the Great Depression.
Rogers said, could have been a recession,
results literally mess crisis for the Government.
trade protection and financial protection is the responsibility of government transfers and the best means of problem.
this means just to make up for the default,
let people outside the muzzle.
Comments: one can create artificial bull market, but unable to create the artificial nature.
three, sharing blogger.
1. Darksteel Order: Low inflation is only against the small recession.
excerpt: Low inflation is only against a small decline.
money is neutral. short, medium and long-term consequences are different.
each government dare not print money indiscriminately's.
This is a national credit overdraft, it will lead to capital flight.
hyperinflation is a national crime.
Russia is warning,
still end up the way back to a balanced budget.
even the United States ask the Chinese to buy U.S. treasury bonds in,
it is not printing money, is debt.
within the global monetary system is just rebalancing.
If the U.S. recklessly printing money,
any one country or individual will abandon the dollar-denominated assets.
dollar index rose above the established credit in the United States.
at least not yet proved that personal bankruptcy.
entirely possible that the U.S. threat of war or even enhance the U.S. war on credit,
or attractiveness of U.S. treasuries.
the final collapse of the dollar credit,
lead to disastrous consequences.
winner will appear in the next generation,
most of the present generation may not be winners.
Reviews : U.S. Once out of his chain, war is perhaps the only means of self-redemption the U.S., but inflation will ultimately monstrous bloodbath the world, the consequences of less than a world war.
2. Darksteel Order: United States to be first recovery
excerpt: The calculation of total factor productivity,
United States is the strongest.
Lang said the 6-plus-one model, beneficiaries are the American tycoons.
America's problem is too zaibatsu, the relocation of production are too many sheets.
Even so, the U.S. unemployment rate is still high.
however, is low in the world.
Japan Similarly, in 2003 The unemployment rate, however 8%,
this is the worst year for history.
have pricing power because of the capital, technology ...