The unexpected factors, international crude oil prices again last week, one hundred dollars a barrel mark, inflation and the global economy into a panic, sharp correction in the stock market. Agency believes that the inevitable next phase of the domestic stock market affected by high oil prices, investors should be concerned about its possible impact on the macroeconomy, avoid the affected large plate, choose the high oil prices benefit section.
last week by the sudden events, 21, New York crude oil rose 10%, 23, oil prices hit a high of 100 dollars, 24 international oil boomed again, in one fell swoop into the By the yield of big North London, Brent crude futures rose to 24 is $ 111.36 / barrel.
testing of domestic and imported milk ingredients that no significant difference in seven adults do not want to purchase China-made milk-second five-year plan to determine the economic growth rate of 7% Wang: agriculture-related credit can not reduce the sugar daddy play a small role, and the third sector in general, News Network Information center Recruitment edit HD: Lu Wen Jiabao and communicate online with friends Kai: Why can not curb inflation
hike on Friday, New York crude oil futures settled nearly $ 98 a barrel, oil prices gained for the week 14% the largest increase since 2008 a week. Brent crude oil futures contract prices continue to sharply higher than the New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil futures, the spread between the current nearly 14 dollars. Analysts believe that the Libyan crude oil prices will depend on the development of the situation.
then, once the elimination of unexpected factors, oil prices will drop it? Liu Yaqin, senior analyst at the International Futures interviewed said that from the crude oil and other commodities such as copper and rubber, the ratio of view, other commodities, already high, but the persistence of crude oil because the United States Library obvious suppression effect at a high level, prices have been underestimated the rise in oil prices last week, the surface is the precipitating factor, but from the beginning of the end of this year, the International Fund has already begun the layout, positions from the fund to see the end of 2010 has reached 1.5 million positions hand, more than the 2008 record high of 1.48 million hands, of which 13% net long positions. International capital has long been betting that oil prices would rise, from the current form point of view, oil prices range has been opened, even if the precipitating factor disappears, do not see it fall short of space.
Libya is the 10th largest OPEC oil exporter, has proven reserves of 440 billion barrels, accounting for more than 3% of the global total. Historically, instability in the Middle East pushed oil prices have a long time. The outbreak of the 1979 Iranian revolution, oil prices rose in the April 1980 peak was $ 39.5 per barrel, adjusted for inflation, the record until 2008, was challenged. 1990, before the outbreak of the first Gulf War about oil prices rose one-third of the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 before oil prices rose again.
affect the global economic recovery, the Wall Street Journal said that three years ago, when soaring oil prices, the global economy has just spent a long period of prosperity, consumers feel relatively good. Today, oil prices rise again, face is just the most challenging in decades through the three-year development period of the global economy. At this point, the U.S. unemployment rate has remained high.
oil prices brought inflation concerns, moves around the world should have. Have to raise interest rates in emerging countries, Russia, the Zhou Wuxuan rates by 25 basis points in Bucharest, Europe rumors will raise interest rates in the short term. Analysis suggests that if oil prices due to geopolitical situation remain high, the West will face accelerating inflation; the other hand, the Middle East and North Africa to the developed countries substantially reduced demand for exports, coupled with its high unemployment and economic growth lower than historical level, developed countries could fall into
However, the analysis is optimistic that the impact would not be significant, GF Securities (000,776, stock it) analyst Choi Young believes that this impact of oil prices on the market, the main logic is: oil → inflation, tightened monetary policy → → market down. But the modern economy has improved immunity to oil prices, the impact of oil prices on economic output will become increasingly smaller. The rise in oil prices should not have a significant impact on economic fundamentals, especially in China's current monetary policy has been tight, prices are expected within the next quarter may still remain high, but is unlikely to continue soaring .
concerned about the corresponding section
Everbright Securities analyst Xue Jun that from the investment logic, directly benefit the oil sector, as an alternative energy, coal, coal chemical sector, in mining, solution-oriented service sector , the exploitation of oil and coal in the machinery industry to benefit from rising oil prices. Meanwhile, new energy sources as wind, solar, nuclear, hydro and biomass as alternative energy sources are also benefiting.
Historically, oil prices Pobai January 2008, July 11 rose to $ 147.25 maximum / barrel. February 19, 2008 -7 and 11 months, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1,711.52 points, down 37.47%; The Shenzhen Component Index fell 6,829.16 points, down 40.50%. But only 26.32% of the decline in mining, industry, cities ranked first Price list; which four Chuansheng Da coal stocks (000,835, stock it), Pan River shares, International Enterprise (000,159, stock it), coal gasification and Yanzhou Coal Mining Dengjun rise, while the new trend in the energy sector was also stronger than the broader market.
shipping industry is considered to be the biggest hit, February 17, along with soaring international oil prices 19% in just six trading days, shares of overseas Cargo consecutive declines. Rising oil prices will significantly increase the cost of the owner. Cargo Shipowners fuel costs are one of the major costs, from the history of CSCL data, the proportion of the total cost of fuel cost is usually between 20% -30%. According to forecasts, oil prices rose 5% each, the company will reduce the performance of 0.04 yuan.
SG Securities analyst Ji Yuntao that, even though the domestic transport sector was relatively strong set, but the A / H Shares spreads rapidly expanding and will drag on the formation of A shares. High expectations based on pre-market and soaring oil prices caused by the gradual restoration of the macro and micro concerns alert to remind investors that the domestic short-term risk of Cargo Unit. (Xinhua Lin Yanlong)
No comments:
Post a Comment